Wednesday, August 17, 2011
Two years ago, Boston Consulting Group forecast that total mail volume in 2020 would be 150 billion pieces. Today, when the Postal services updated forecast is revealed the 2020 forecast will be at least 11 billion pieces fewer. The new volume forecast will be worse than Boston Consulting Group's worse case scenario presented in 2010.
The culprit is declining expectations for First Class mail only slightly offset by marginal improvements in expected growth in Standard Mail. The new forecast indicates that the Postal Service now expects First Class mail will be less than half of 2009 levels while Standard mail continues to experience very limited growth.
The following chart illustrates the change in thinking in the new forecast and 2009 mail volume for the Postal Service's two largest products.
The forecast change drives the Postal Services recent legislative proposals on ending no-layoff clauses, raising limits on the proportion of part time employees and shifting benefit programs from OPM to the Postal Service. The forecast change also drives the network changes that management will introduce today at MTAC as well. More information will be posted on the Postal Services Postal Services current and future financial troubles
Posted by Alan Robinson at 7:04 AM