One of the arguments that postal labor unions will make to try to stop some of the changes that the Postal Service wants to introduce will be the impact on employment. The employment argument resonated while the economy was shedding jobs. In a weak job market, excess postal employees would have difficulty finding jobs.
This appears to no longer be the case. The February figure reported today by the
Bureau of Labor Statistics showed positive signs for jobs that reinforced reports of the previous two months.
Sector by Sector data shows that almost all of the decline came from construction employment that is easily explained by the snow storms that occurred during the week when the data was collected. Manufacturing employment rose. Government employment declined with most of the decline occurred at the local level at public schools and at the national level at the Postal Service. Other good signs were the results of surveys that indicated that people are no longer settling for part time jobs because they cannot find full time jobs and a spike in temporary jobs which usually is precursor of growth in full time jobs.
This reports suggests that the Postal Service could shed jobs at a rate faster than attrition over the next 10 years and current employees who are asked to retire early or take severance should be able to find jobs in the private sector in the near term and public sector in one or two years when tax revenue begins to rise again. Most encouraging for Postal employees are growth in sectors that could use employees with the strong work ethic of postal production employees and the management skills that postal supervisors, postmasters and higher level managers have.
As the economy can handle a decline in Postal Service employment, it may be time to begin thinking about accelerating the proposed changes in the operating and retail networks that will both cut costs and improve service. In doing so, the Postal Service may help preserve its market position with those business-to-consumer correspondence, advertising and parcel delivery customers that are critical for its survival over the next decade. While the Postal Service cannot stop the impact of broadband access and increased preference for digital receipt of documents by businesses and households, focusing on these two items first reduces the risk of accelerating the shift to digital delivery that exists with switching to 5-day delivery or annual exigent rate cases raising rates by 2-4% above the rate of inflation would have.
Accelerating these changes has major obstacles due to the effect that they will have on members of the American Postal Workers and Mailhandlers unions and among supervisor and Postmaster management associations. These changes will reduce their membership and require changes in work rules to increase the share of part time employees to reflect the nature of work in an operating network that will work to minimize the time that any piece of mail spends inside a plant. The shift in retail to contract stations will reduce the need for traditional postmasters as the number of corporate retail outlets shrink.
To overcome these obstacles the unions and management associations as well as the Postal Service need to think creatively as the changes give employees the best long-term prospects for secure jobs and customers a clearer path forward to plan their continued use of mail. No industry undergoing competitive changes similar to what the Postal Service now experiences did so simply through reducing workforce and changing work rules through attrition. In all industries, employees bearing the pain of transformation were given significant financial incentives that allowed change to occur at a rate faster than what attrition would allow.
Unions and management will need to determine the incentives that will be required for full time employees to leave employment that could be applied on a location-by-location basis as the new networks are implemented as well as the incentives that may be needed nationwide to raise the share of part-time employees to 30% or more. These incentives are the plan B that unions need as soon as they realize that stonewalling change is not a viable negotiating or political strategy.
In addition to similar incentives, management associations need to think about working with management to transform job descriptions For examples postmasters could incorporate management and financial responsibility for contract retail outlets. Having two competing management silos for corporate and non-corporate retail outlets do not seem to be a sensible way to improve the competitiveness of the Postal Service's retail products in communities that have both types of outlets. The addition of this new responsibility could require upgrading the salaries of postmasters and some supervisors to reflect the increased responsibility.
Neither the Postal Service nor unions are discussing their negotiating strategy publicly and management associations are concerned about the road ahead. Neither side can afford to allow the negotiations and /or arbitration process to drag out as the long term prospects of postal jobs and Postal Service requires quick resolution of the difficult issues at hand.
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