Rate Increase Coming in 2011

In a letter to the Postal Regulatory Commission, the Postal Service asked for clarification regarding the total increase in rates under the cap.   The Postal Service stated that it wanted the clarification so that it could better to do its financial planning for Fiscal Year 2011.  However, mailers should clearly understand that rates will be rising in calendar year 2011.

Rate increases will be relatively modest.   Rate increases will be rising on average around 2% and most likely slightly below that figure.  

The price of  a single piece stamp will likely increase by a penny to 45 cents. (2.3%)   Bulk First Class mail will rise slightly less to ensure that rates for the entire class rise less than the cap.

The largest rate increases will likely be felt by Standard Mail parcels and non-machinable flats.   The Postal Service will likely raise these rates by between double and quadruple the cap for Standard Mail as a whole. The large rate increase on this product will occur due to the confluence of two factors that generally influence pricing decisions at any firm offering a product in commercial markets.  First, it is in the Postal Service's interest to ensure that all parcel products earn a positive return, and eventually a return equal to the firm wide average.   As single piece First Class mail volume declines, the Postal Service can no longer to price products that do not have a legislatively mandated discounted rate at a loss. 

Second, both UPS and FedEx are making significant changes in their rate structure that would allow the Postal Service to raise rates in small parcels significantly without affecting its market position.   The two private sector carriers are raising the minimum shipment charges on express shipments and expected to raise the minimums on ground parcels that large shippers pay for low weight shipments going to destinations in zones 2 through 4 or 5.  For smaller shippers what matters is not only the rate increases that the private carriers set for the base rate but also changes in accessorial charges for remote and home delivery, as well as changes in the method of calculating package density that can push a light-weight parcel into a heavier weight cell.   All of these changes combined means that shippers spending less than $100,000 annually on parcel and express shipments may see rate increases from in light weight parcels in the high single digit range from the private sector carriers early in 2011.   

The previous two times that that the Postal Service raised rates under the cap, the increase went into affect late in 2nd calendar quarter.   Clearly the Postal Service would like to raise rates earlier.   Whether the Postal Service could propose a rate increase under the cap that would go into affect earlier in 2011, and closer to the timing of the rate increases of United Parcel Service and FedEx requires greater knowledge of the law than I have. 

Corrections to Yesterday's post

I have made two changes to yesterday's post, The Postal Service Should Default on Its Retiree Health Care Obligation from the original version to correct errors.   Accounts payable replaced accounts receivble in the first paragraph.  Both are bad but as the USPS collects revenue up front it has minimal accounts receivable.  It does have substantial accounts payable and other liabilities that need to be paid for which it does not have needed revenue.  The paragraph on geographically oriented rates would was changed to correct an error regarding rates to high density areas.   Rates there would go down not up.  Geographically oriented rates are used outside of the US by postal operators for providing only last mile services as a means to prevent cream skimming either in terms of creating a competing delivery service or exploiting anomalies in the rate structure as compared to the cost structure in ways that would cause the Post to handle substantial volumes below costs

I apologize for the errors and whatever confusion they may have created.

The Postal Service Should Default on its Retiree Healthcare Obligation

The Postal Service is broke.   It has expenses far above revenue and has contract agreements and accounts payables far above its ability to pay.    Besides payroll its largest obligations are to the Federal government and transportation companies like FedEx.  It cannot afford to offer the services it is required to provide.  A recent report from the USPS Office of Inspector General states that the Postal Service is even less likely to be financially viable under the current operating model if volumes continue to decline.

In this financial state, the Postal Service must default in its obligations to the Federal Government and force Congress and the administration to choose between restructuring and liquidation.  Clearly, liquidation is not an option as the economic impact of ending mail service would be catastrophic and shifting mail delivery to the private sector would require a significant gap in time when no service would exist.

Default would force OMB and Congress to act and should force changes both at the Board of Governors (BOG) and senior management.  As such, the BOG and Postal management need to take an action that could cost them their jobs.

What would a restructuring look like?

• Introduction of a financial target requiring revenue greater than what is needed to ensure accounting break even as that target does not ensure financial self sufficiency.
  
• Immediate implementation of the Office of Inspector General's plan to cut area and district level employees.   Even if the plan is not perfect, there is not the money available to wait for a better plan.
  
• A new operating plan for handling bulk flats and sorting them to carrier route sequence order using a network of between 50 and 100 facilities.
  
• Streamlined review of network consolidation proposals under consideration.   The goal would be to implement consolidation proposals already announced in the second and third quarters of FY '11.  This cuts the normal time needed to implement consolidation efforts by six months or more.
  
• A second set of consolidations would be introduced for FY '12 by July of 2011.
  
• Increases in rates.   Rates would rise immediately on single piece mail to generate revenue to cover severance and other costs of reducing the workforce for this rapidly declining product and parcel services to both cover costs and/or match rate increases of UPS and FedEx.  Increases in rates for advertising focused mail would likely follow both the timing and size in increases in rates that other traditional advertising media charge as advertising rebounds with the pick-up in consumer spending that appears to be accelerating.
  
• Introduction of geographically based prices for drop shipped mail and parcels.   This will raise rates in low density areas and lower them in high density areas.  On average this will not affect rates and could expand mail use in areas that have lower delivery costs.
  
• All labor contracts would expire with the restructuring.    New contracts would show limited deference to work rules, compensation and other provisions in existing contracts.
  
• Consolidate retail services into fewer locations open for longer hours and self service locations by the end of FY 2012.

What would the Federal Government have to cover?

•  Most if not all of the retiree heath care costs.   Congress would have to accept modifications in the CSRS calculation and use the overpayment to pay off most of the retiree health care
  obligation and accept modifications in retiree health care calculations in order to reduce the remaining liability.
  
• The costs of early retirement incentives and severance payments to reduce the work force.
  
• All capital costs to rapidly expand self-service to retail using proven technology.  
  
• All capital and other transition costs associated with consolidation and closing facilities.

This is not a pretty picture.  Statements from members of Congress do not suggest that they are yet ready to give current management another year of relief from retiree health care payments, and forcing receivership of the Postal Service goes far beyond that step.  However, Postal management should eschew their self interest and default on the retiree health care payments to force Congress's hand. Then and only then, will Congress look for solutions that go beyond tweaking the status quo.


9/30/2010 - Two changes were made in this post from the original version to correct errors.   Accounts payable replaced accounts receivable in the first paragraph.  Both are bad but as the USPS collects revenue up front it has minimal accounts receivable.  It does have substantial accounts payable and other liabilities that need to be paid for which it does not have needed revenue.  The paragraph on geographically oriented rates would was changed to correct an error regarding rates to high density areas.   Rates there would go down not up.  Geographically oriented rates are used outside of the US by postal operators for providing only last mile services as a means to prevent cream skimming either in terms of creating a competing delivery service or exploiting anomalies in the rate structure as compared to the cost structure in ways that would cause the Post to handle substantial volumes below costs

Senator Carper's Bill: D.O.A

Senator Tom Carper introduced a new postal bill, the ‘‘Postal Operations Sustainment and Transformation Act of 2010’’ (The POST Act of 2010), to modify the Postal Service's business model on September 23rd.   The bill includes all of the legislative changes that the Postal Service requested as part of its action plan last March.  The strong support that Postmaster General Potter shows for the bill in the press release from Senator Carper's office confirms that this bill can be thought of as the "Postal Service's bill."

Unfortunately for Postmaster General Potter, Senator Carper's bill is effectively dead on arrival.  Why?

• The bill was introduced at the end of the legislative session.    With both the House and Senate going on recess to campaign, the consideration of the bill will not even begin until after the election.    The bill still will require mark-up in the Senate and then mark-up and passage by the House.   The clock will most likely run out before passage in one house of Congress, let alone two.
  
• The expected Republican gains in the Senate and House will make any lame-duck session particularly contentious and further reduce the chance that any major legislation will pass.   If Republicans gain control of one or more houses in Congress, it is in their interest to make the lame duck session as ineffective as possible forcing legislative actions to be put on hold until the next Congress.
  
• It is easier to stop legislation than to pass it.   The Post Act has a number of provisions that immediately generate opposition.
  
• Provisions in the legislation to fix the retiree benefit issues easily can be opposed in a Tweet describing the fix as a bailout of a failed federal agency.   This is exactly what Congressman Darrell Issa said in his op-ed in the Washington Times.  Given opposition to bailouts of private sector firms, Congress is unlikely to pass any legislation labeled as a "bailout" of a government entity in the press, in the blogosphere, on cable TV news or on talk radio.
  
• Provisions to allow the Postal Service to eliminate Saturday delivery will receive opposition from a majority of Congress. 
  
• Provisions to allow the Postal Service greater flexibility to cut rural post offices will face opposition from primarily the Republican and Blue Dog Democratic members of Congress that represent most of rural America.   While these members are opposed to bailouts, they are also opposed to cutting services to their constituents.
  
• Provisions allowing the Postal Service to expand into new services that use its physical, technological and human capital that are in the public interest will receive opposition from companies that fear competition from the Postal Service.
  
• Provisions calling for a change in labor arbitration decision criteria will have opposition from Postal unions and their supporters in Congress.

Finally, if this bill does not pass this Congress, it is even less likely to pass in its current form in the next.   Republicans will control the agenda on modifying the Postal Service's business model in the next Congress.    Representative Issa, who has already called the Carper bill a bailout, appears likely to chair the committee writing Postal reform legislation in the House.   His bill will likely require significant changes in the business model beyond what the Postal Service has proposed before accepting the need to fix the retiree benefits issues, let alone include any of the other proposals that Senator Carper has included in the Post Act.  When that occurs, all that may remain of the Post Act will be the legislation's title.

Could FedEx be Beating USPS and UPS in Expanding the use of its Retail Network?

In a story today, the Wall Street Journal reported that Walmart is introducing a program that allows customers to buy online and pick up the item at FedEx Office locations as well as Walmart stores.  Walmart added this delivery option this summer in Los Angeles and Boston, where FedEx has 24 and 18 FedEx Office locations respectively.  In both cities, Walmart has few stores where customers can collect items shipped to a store.

This program allows Walmart to sell its products more effectively to customers who are rarely at home during the day.  Also FedEx Office delivery significantly reduces the cost of delivery of large and heavy items making Walmart's site-to-store via FedEx Office a major advantage for online sales.

Randy Scarborough, vice president of marketing for FedEx Office comments to the Wall Street Journal clearly indicates that FedEx Office is looking at parcel pick-up as a significant new revenue stream for its FedEx Office division.   He stated that FedEx Office expects "other large retailers to take advantage of this."  He further noted that FedEx is planning its "physical network to accommodate this because we do anticipate additional demand." 

The current experiment most likely is focusing on:

• removing the logistical kinks in the process both within the FedEx distribution networks and within the FedEx Office retail locations, 
• help FedEx determine the revenue that a FedEx Office location will receive for acting as a parcel delivery location and 
• help Walmart identify the customers and products that are most likely shipped to a FedEx Office location and which ones still require home delivery.   

Once FedEx begins to expand this program beyond Walmart, it will need to look at secure and less labor intensive means of holding and tendering parcels at its retail locations, especially if demand for parcel pick-ups is concentrated in the same early evening time window that customers are shipping parcels.  At that point kiosks such as those used by Deutsche Post and Post Danmark will begin to look attractive as a cost effective means of allowing customers to get their parcels without having to wait in line for a FedEx Office employee.

Why Tablet Based Newspapers and Magazines will Succeed

The following ad from Newsday illustrates why ipad and other applications will succeed.  Watch it once to get the joke.   Watch it a second time to see how thr reader is holding the iPad.   It looks like the iPad can be physically handled not much differently than a newspaper. 




The only problem is bright light that might favor the less expensive Kindle and Nook for books and other text only applications.  This is illustrated in the following ad for Kindle that competes nicely with a printed book.

FedEx Earnings - Implications for the USPS

FedEx's earnings announcement and conference provided some insights into the parcel market and the increasing integration of the Postal Services delivery network with the marketing and distribution capabilities of FedEx.   The comments relating to FedEx Smart Post seem to indicate that United Parcel Service and other carriers that compete in the market for delivering small parcels to households, whether by their own drivers or by the Postal Service may be losing market share to FedEx.

Here are the relevant excerpts:

 Parcel Volume

Dave Bronczek – President and CEO of FedEx Express from the Q & A

Well, Art, as Fred mentioned in his opening remarks, we expect a very solid peak season. It always gets a little cloudy after that with the key focal point being Chinese New Year. So, we're optimistic about going into the holiday period and I think we'll have strong performance both in our U.S. networks and international networks through the peak season, but it always gets a little cloudy after that with the important period being around Chinese New Year.

We do expect solid industrial production numbers for the calendar year 2010 and going into 2011 in the 4% to 5% range, and we expect a little bit of consumer spending pickup. Our numbers are around 1.5 in calendar year '10 and about 2.6 in calendar year '11. So those are numbers that we’re very comfortable with in terms of supporting our business levels. Obviously, we'll need to wait a little while after peak season to see what the remainder of the year looks like.

The Postal Service can expect an increase in parcels in the 4th quarter and beyond at least as much as large as what FedEx expects.  As will be shown below, the volume of parcels that the Postal Service delivers is tied to how many parcels FedEx and other similar firms feed to its delivery network.

Distribution Patterns

Alan Graf  - CFO from the Q and A

 Let me just add, particularly in the high-tech sector, our customers don't have any inventory. And what's happening, the market is coming to us as there's a disintermediation of intermediate distribution. Items are going directly from where they are manufactured to point of consumption, which is called International Priority Express, and that's what’s so exciting about the next few years around here is, that's going to continue, and with the reliability that we put up, there's no need to have an intermediate warehouse and there's no need to have a backlog of things that can go obsolete on the shelves and that's part of the excitement that we see around here.

In response to a question about inventory, Alan Graf highlights one of the challenges competing in the domestic home-delivery parcel market.   Inventory of items manufactured overseas, and in particular items that weigh less than ten pounds are no longer shipped to a domestic warehouse for shipping to the household customers.   As the retailer does not know where in the United States the sales will come from or for that matter, what color, size, and in the case of computers, the processor, specific amount of memory, size of hard drive, and other components that the customer plans to order, keeping inventory in the United States becomes quite expensive.  Given the difference in labor costs, it becomes cheaper to pay international air freight than to ship a basic model to the United States, and then modify it for individual orders.  

FedEx continues to deliver these items within its Express network and United Parcel Service delivers them within their standard network.   The Postal Service could enter the market for the delivery of foreign sourced retail sales for home delivery only if it offered a price competitive delivery service in conjunction with DHL or TNT or a foreign post that offered the same security as what FedEx and UPS offer (signature requirements and tracking service) at a competitive price for the total end to end transportation charge.  It could more easily offer a price competitive service that allowed for pick-up at a Post Office or automated kiosk in conjunction with any carrier for a price well below the cost of home delivery.


Parcel Prices:

Mike Glen - President and CEO of FedEx Services from the Q & A



We were pleased with the Domestic Express volume performance. It is also being driven by the high-tech high value added sector. But the particular point that I want to make here is about the strong yield management activities that are in place and we will continue going forward. That is our primary objective. While we want to continue to grow volume and expect that we will do that, our primary focus is on improving yields, at the domestic Express business as well as in Ground and certainly LTL. So, our primary focus is not on market share so much as opposed to continuing to improve yields.


Dave Bronczek – President and CEO of FedEx Express from the Q & A

This is Dave. I’ll just add to what Mike said, and I've mentioned this a couple of times before and we'll talk about it in a couple of weeks here. Yes, the volume is up 3% and yes, my yields are up 7% for an overall revenue increase of 10%, but again, the global network that FedEx Express is, the more international packages that end up in the United States in the inbound, or outbound part of my cycle drives more and more profits automatically. So, the more international packages that end up in my U.S. domestic trucks coupled with the yield improvement program that Mike just talked about is a significant profit driver for FedEx Express.

FeEx's increases in yield (average revenue per piece) reflect a concerted effort to raise the average rate that its customers pay.  While some of the increase in reflects an increase in weight and a higher proportion of international shipments for FedEx Express, it is clear that even in an economy with slow growth, FedEx is able to raise its prices for parcel delivery services.


Service Quality:

Fred Smith from opening statement

FedEx Ground continues to accelerate its network providing a clear speed advantage over the competition. Quite simply, FedEx Ground is faster to more U.S. locations than any other ground carrier.

Just since this last January, FedEx Ground has increased the speed of nearly 3,700 lanes. Since June 2003, FedEx Ground has accelerated its delivery times by one day or more in about 82,000 lanes. FedEx Ground now delivers more than half its volume of packages in two business days or less, and more than 80% in three days or less. FedEx Ground service levels are at all-time highs.

For the Postal Service, FedEx Ground's improved service standards pose a competitive threat to Priority Mail as for many origin destination pairs FedEx Ground rates are less than Priority Mail.   To the extent that United Parcel Service is also expanding the geographic area that has delivery in less than two or three days, they create a competitive advantage over Priority Mail.

Integration with the Postal Service Delivery Network:

 Mike Glenn - President and CEO of FedEx Services

I want to comment on one thing and caution you about looking at the Ground numbers in a vacuum. One of the strategic advantages that we have is SmartPost. SmartPost allows us to attack the residential lightweight business in a very efficient and profitable way. So rather than trying to steer that traffic into the Ground network and the Home network in particular, we steer that traffic into the SmartPost network.

So by definition, some of the growth potential that might otherwise go to Ground is going to SmartPost, and I think you can see the very strong performance we have there. So you have to look at our Ground strategy as an overall residential strategy, including SmartPost. We are very pleased with our ability to continue to have industry-leading growth rates and very strong yield improvement efforts at Ground, and I think that's based upon the combination of a great sales team that is armed with the tremendous value proposition and that's a formula for success.

Fred Smith from the Q & A

So, a good example of that is what Mike Glenn just talked to you about. If you really want to talk about the most cost-sensitive segment of the market, it is lightweight, low value-added retail items going to the home. There is no one that has the density that can compete with United States Postal Service. That's why several years ago, we came up with the strategy of developing a SmartPost service, and why it is growing at huge rates. So, we firmly believe that our strategy which has allowed us to pick-up in the commercial ground sector, what about 12 market share points...

Alan Graf - CFO from the opening statement

FedEx SmartPost average daily volumes grew 9% to $1.1 million as a result of gains in market share and the introduction of new service offerings. Yields at FedEx SmartPost increased 19% primarily due to lower postage costs as a result of increased deliveries to U.S. Postal Service, final destination facilities and higher fuel surcharges.

FedEx clearly sees its SmartPost service as a competitive advantage.   Given that it offers shippers in a highly price sensitive market very low parcel delivery rates a competitive service it increases what the Postal Service delivers.   Pricing this service to FedEx requires a great deal of understanding as to what FedEx is charging customers and what portion of that charge represents the Postal Service's part.   Trying to set this rate within a regulatory context is particularly difficult and raises a question as to whether the rate increases for the Postal Service's portion of the revenue from a parcel delivery shipment should reflect the ability of FedEx and similar carriers to raise prices for end to end service or some other standard.  

To the extent that regulated parcel services are primarily originated by FedEx and similar firms, then the value of the regulation to the shipper of regulated rates may be diminished by the benefits that FedEx and similar firms capture for themselves.